Pokemon Pull Rates Explained: Your Complete Guide to Pack Odds
Updated January 2025 • 15 min read
Key Takeaways
- Pull rates are statistical probabilities, not guarantees
- Modern sets have ~1/400 odds for the rarest cards (SARs)
- A booster box does NOT guarantee any specific hits
- Expected Value (EV) helps compare packs mathematically
- Japanese and English pull rates often differ
"What are my chances of pulling that $500 Umbreon?" It's the question every Pokemon collector asks before ripping packs. Understanding pull rates—the statistical odds of finding specific cards—is essential for making smart collecting decisions. This guide breaks down everything you need to know.
What Are Pokemon Pull Rates?
Pull rates are the statistical probabilities of finding specific card rarities in Pokemon booster packs. Unlike some TCGs that publish official rates, The Pokemon Company doesn't disclose exact numbers—so the community relies on aggregated data from thousands of documented pack openings.
Think of it like this: if a card has a "1 in 100" pull rate, you'd expect to find approximately one copy in every 100 packs opened. But here's the crucial part: statistics don't guarantee outcomes. You could open 200 packs and never see that card, or you could pull it in your first pack. That's probability.
Important Distinction
Pull rates describe long-term averages across many openings, not what will happen in your specific packs. Opening 100 packs doesn't entitle you to specific pulls—each pack is an independent event.
Understanding Pokemon Card Rarity Tiers
Modern Pokemon sets (Scarlet & Violet era) use a complex rarity system. Here's how the tiers break down:
Common
~5-6 per pack
Basic Pokemon and trainer cards. Every pack contains multiples. Typically worth pennies.
Uncommon
~3 per pack
Stage 1 evolutions and useful trainers. Still bulk, but occasionally playable.
Rare
1 per pack (guaranteed)
Every pack has at least one rare. Holos, reverse holos, or standard rares.
Holo Rare
~1 in 3 packs
Holographic Pokemon. The baseline "hit" that most collectors recognize.
Ultra Rare (ex/V)
~1 in 6-8 packs
Pokemon ex cards with powerful abilities. The standard "hit" in modern sets.
Illustration Rare
~1 in 18-25 packs
Extended artwork cards. Where the art quality really shines.
Special Art Rare
~1 in 60-100 packs
Full-art Pokemon with premium illustration. Major chase cards.
Hyper/Gold Rare
~1 in 100-150 packs
Gold-bordered cards. Rarest standard pulls in most sets.
Estimated Pull Rates by Rarity (2024-2025)
The Pokemon Company does not publish official pull rates. The estimates below are compiled from community data—thousands of documented openings on YouTube, Reddit, and collector forums. Individual experiences will vary significantly.
| Rarity Tier | Estimated Pull Rate | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Holo Rare | ~1 in 3 packs | Most common "hit" in modern sets |
| Pokemon ex / Ultra Rare | ~1 in 6-8 packs | Varies by set; special sets may have better rates |
| Illustration Rare | ~1 in 18-30 packs | Extended artwork cards |
| Special Art Rare (SAR) | ~1 in 60-120 packs | Highly variable; major chase cards |
| Hyper/Gold Rare | ~1 in 100-150+ packs | Rarest standard pulls |
Important Disclaimer
These are estimates only. Pull rates vary between sets, product types (booster packs vs. ETBs vs. special collections), and even print runs. Use these numbers as rough guidelines, not guarantees.
Booster Box Pull Rates: The Math
A standard Pokemon booster box contains 36 packs. Based on typical pull rates, here's what you can statistically expect from a box:
Common Misconception
"Every box is guaranteed a SAR" — This is FALSE. With ~1 in 80-100 pull rates and only 36 packs per box, you have roughly a 30-40% chance of pulling a Special Art Rare in any given box. Many boxes contain zero SARs.
Calculating Expected Value (EV)
Expected Value is a mathematical concept that helps you understand the average return you'd get from opening packs over many trials. Here's how to calculate it:
EV Formula
EV = Σ (Pull Rate × Card Value)
Sum of each possible outcome's probability multiplied by its value.
Example: Single Pack EV Calculation
Let's calculate the expected value of a Prismatic Evolutions pack:
If you're paying $5.49 per pack, you're losing approximately $0.73 per pack on average. But if you find packs at $4.00 or below, the math shifts in your favor.
Why EV Matters
EV helps you compare different sets and make informed decisions. A set with exciting chase cards but terrible pull rates might actually be worse value than a "boring" set with consistent hits. Our Perfect Pulls tool calculates this automatically.
Japanese vs. English Pull Rates
Japanese Pokemon products often have different pull rates than their English counterparts. Key differences:
🇯🇵 Japanese Packs
- Smaller pack sizes (5 cards vs 10)
- Generally better pull rates per pack
- Booster boxes have 30 packs (150 cards)
- Often guarantee certain rarity tiers per box
- Lower individual card values in Western markets
🇺🇸 English Packs
- Larger pack sizes (10-11 cards)
- Lower pull rates per pack
- Booster boxes have 36 packs (360+ cards)
- No guaranteed hits per box
- Higher resale value for most cards
The verdict: Japanese packs offer better opening experiences and more hits, but English cards typically hold more long-term value in Western markets. Choose based on your goals.
How Pull Rate Data is Collected
Since The Pokemon Company doesn't publish official rates, the community relies on aggregated data:
- YouTube Case Breaks — Content creators document thousands of pack openings on camera, providing verifiable data points.
- Reddit Communities — r/PokemonTCG and r/PokeInvesting compile user-reported pull data in spreadsheets.
- Collector Forums — Elite Fourum, PokeBeach, and others maintain long-running pull rate threads.
- AI Aggregation — Tools like CardGrader.AI compile and analyze data from multiple sources to estimate rates.
With sample sizes in the tens of thousands, these community estimates are statistically reliable for most purposes—though individual experiences will always vary.
Frequently Asked Questions
Are Pokemon pull rates rigged?
No evidence suggests Pokemon pull rates are "rigged." However, rates are designed to make rare cards genuinely rare. What feels like bad luck is usually just probability working as intended. Each pack is an independent random event.
Do heavier packs have better pulls?
This was true for vintage packs but is largely a myth for modern Pokemon products. Modern card stock and printing techniques make weight-based pack searching unreliable. Don't waste your time with scales.
Are Elite Trainer Boxes better than booster boxes?
ETBs contain fewer packs (typically 9-11) than booster boxes (36), so your overall odds of hitting are lower. However, ETBs include accessories and sometimes have marginally better per-pack pull rates. For pure value, booster boxes win.
How do I track my own pull rates?
Use a spreadsheet to log every pack you open, recording date, set, and all hits. After 100+ packs, you'll have meaningful personal data. Apps like CardGrader.AI can also help track your collection and opening history.
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